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Moroccan agriculture, climate change, and the Moroccan Green Plan

This paper provides estimates of the economic impacts of climate change and estimates the adaptation potential of the current Moroccan agricultural development and investment strategy, the Moroccan Green Plan (MGP). We develop a regionalised Morocco Computable General Equilibrium model to analyse the linkages of climate-induced productivity losses (gains) at the level of administrative and economic regions in Morocco. We model the climate change impacts as productivity shocks in the agricultural sector. The yield projections are for 2050, which we introduce with respect to a 2003 baseline. The results indicate no major differences between the climate change impacts without and with the MGP. With no MGP adaptation, GDP impacts range from -3.1% to +0.4%. When including the MGP targets, GDP impacts range from -2.9% to +0.43%. A potential cause for such results is the limited scope in terms of agricultural sector coverage of our MGP simulations owing to modelling and data constraints. © 2018, African Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics.

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